Our Prediction: At the start of the campaign, incumbent Murali appeared to have been put on a back foot with a "scurrilous" online attack on his family. Our Prediction: It's always close in Aljunied GRC. This time, it appears that WP decided to spread its talent more evenly in East Coast GRC (Terence Tan, Kenneth Foo, Nicole Seah) and Sengkang GRC (He Ting Ru and Jamus Lim). All Rights Reserved. He is Wrong. In fact, the opposition may be entirely annihilated this election. SINGAPORE: Campaigning for Singapore's Jul 10 General Election is now under way after Nomination Day submissions ended with all 31 constituencies being … As a result, Singaporeans were uninterested in these unfamiliar faces only until recently. Based on an alleged screenshot of these odds, it appears that bookies are expecting the PAP to lose multiple constituencies by a small margin. A win in the tough Covid-19 election is still a win for PAP. | “GE2020 will be like 2015, it will be another ‘freak election’, because of Covid-19. Woodlands had dinosaurs before it was cool. What if its leaders have not gained public adoration by GE2025? Voting was mandatory for all Singaporeans who were aged 21 or above as of 1 March 2020. The areas under the new GRC are Compassvale, Rivervale and Anchorvale. About He is of the opinion that they have barely had time to plant their seeds in the grassroots to earn genuine affection and adoration from the public. The history of the PAP is one that is difficult to disentangle from the history of Singapore itself. Tag: GE 2020 prediction Sengkang GRC Singapore General Election 2020! This is especially true of younger voters, who are “more educated and are increasingly interested in political participation”. The next general election must be held by April 2021, at the latest. Margin of victory in 2015: 45.78 per cent, Margin of victory in 2011: 29.58 per cent, Margin of victory in 2015: 3.52 per cent, Margin of victory in 2013 by-election: 10.77 per cent (for WP), Margin of victory in 2011: 13.53 per cent, Margin of victory in 2015: 24.22 per cent, Margin of victory in 2011: 16.22 per cent. The Workers’ Party (WP) and the Progress Singapore Party (PSP) have proven, or are continuously working to prove themselves to be a legitimate opposition party tough enough to contend against the incumbent PAP in the public eye. I’m preparing for an opposition wipe-out. If you’ve ever wanted to shoot your shot at being an influencer, now’s your chance. PAP is taking this contest seriously by sending an anchor Minister - Ng Chee Meng from Pasir Ris Punggol GRC - closest to the new GRC. Sengkang GRC is a new GRC for Singapore Election 2020. On top of the new problems which it has created, Singh thinks that the lasting impact of Covid-19 will, and has already started acting as a catalyst in dragging some of Singapore’s pressure points back into the spotlight. However, in most cases Parliament is dissolved and a general election called at the behest of the Prime Minister before the five-year period elapses. This time, 91 parties contested the election. To make matters worse, the controversy surrounding Ivan Lim has put the screening process of the PAP candidates in the spotlight. Our Prediction: The West - Jurong GRC and West Coast GRC - are widely considered as "safe seats" for the PAP. For Singapore, political support too hinges on the government’s performance in managing the Covid-19 outbreak. It appears that WP will reconsider its long-term strategy for East Coast GRC in future, especially since Pritam called the move a "strategic surprise". Singapore’s 2020 Election: Explaining the PAP’s Stagnation By Conrad Guimaraes Moving forward, the PAP will need to consider how to manage the electoral impact of several key trends. All rights reserved. | In a world that is bubbling with clickbait, sensationalism and oversimplifications, Kopi aims to bring long-form journalism back to South-East Asia. Advertise with us The first reason is that PAP will not be contesting against Reform Party, the poorest performing opposition party in the last GE. Singh also weighed in that “the public sector is relatively safe, but the private sector is in grave danger because of the lack of demand from businesses overseas”. But here's why they might be in trouble at the same time. PAP: 67% However, whether this will cause people to take a second look before they cross off the ballot paper remains to be seen. Jamus Lim, Louis Chua, and Raeesah Khan have been seen walking the ground since last year, accompanied by former MP Lee Li Lian. Pritam has led the WP campaign well as the face and leader of WP. My view : PAP has way more advantage this time round (boundaries + covid + pmd ban + angbao) Easy defence for the incumbent government, much like Israel vs yoel match. It elected members of parliament to the 14th Parliament of Singapore since Singapore's independence in 1965, using the first-past-the-post electoral system. Let alone the 4G leaders, who have just recently been thrust into the spotlight. Without the charismatic appeal of the first-generation leaders, the PAP is now “only good for its economic track record” to them, but even this will not come easy for the party from now on. See maps and real-time presidential election results for the 2020 US election. No, that’s not a prediction. Inspections have been carried out at the ferry terminal by Indonesian authorities. The exchange rate is forecast at 1.3150 for end-2021. The Best of all Opposition Parties in Singapore for 2020 General Elections July 10, 2020. Notably, he has authored ‘Is the People’s Action Party Here to Stay?’ (2019),  ‘Understanding Singapore’s Politics’ (2017) and ‘Politics and Governance in Singapore: An Introduction’ (2007). The National Stockpile, Explained. In Singapore, election results have swung within a narrow band much higher than Constitutional thresholds. In a photo taken on Sept 11, 2015, during the general election, people cast their votes at Jing Shan Primary School. Senior Minister of State Lam Pin Min is an experienced political campaigner and has defended his SMC seat successfully for two terms. But the margin of victory should be closer to 9.44 per cent than 1.9 per cent. Given my big miss in 2016, I’m not sure why anyone would be interested in my election predictions, but I’ve received several emails asking me to offer up my guesses for 2020 (perhaps some of them are long-time readers who remember 2010, when I actually did a good job?).. Last time around, in 2015, it won almost 70% of the popular vote, perhaps boosted by the death earlier that year of Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore’s first prime minister and the incumbent’s father. How will this affect the voters in Sengkang GRC? The Election Department has designated nine schools as nomination centers for candidates in nearby constituencies: Singh observed that the diversity of fielded candidates from the opposition is especially robust this year, taking into account age and race. So far, the outreach of social media looks promising as shown by recent events: the unexpected defence by Pritam Singh and Alfian Sa’at against Tan Wu Meng, and the online outrage by netizens of all ages against PAP Ivan Lim who has been accused of being an elitist. Singapore’s 13th general election will be held on July 10 following a campaign period with restrictions on mass events to manage risks from the coronavirus pandemic. After Hong Kah North was carved out into an SMC, Khor soundly beat candidates from the Singapore People’s Party in GE2011 and 2015, earning 70 and 75 per cent of the vote respectively. (I will explain later why I have excluded the 2010 elections from this discussion.) Singapore People's Party chairman Jose Raymond ran a spirited campaign, both online and offline. This, compounded with the global economic recession, has only made it increasingly more difficult for the PAP to sustain their votes in the ballot box. Before I offer up my prediction, I’ll first share some of the guesses from the experts. Singapore's next general election will be held in 10 July 2020. July 10, 2020, 10:36 PM. It was delayed from 8 May 2020 due to the ban of all events, especially political rallies. | The East Coast GRC team comprising of NCMPs Giam, Perera and Goh was clearly its second strongest team after Low Thia Khiang's Aljunied GRC team. He may have a chance to be an NCMP. First in 2015, when there was an outpouring of public sympathy for the late Minister Mentor. Instead, most campaigning with the exception of walkabouts will have to be done online this year. © 2019 The Kopi Company. Aljunied GRC had seen tight contests since 2006. Margin of victory in 2011: 33.14 per cent. But what is more exciting to come is GE2025. We can look at the margin of victory for three different constituencies, Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC, Punggol East SMC and Sengkang West SMC. Through engaging narratives, we tell stories that are bold and unique. On Nov. 7, 2015, 24 million of 34 million eligible voters cast ballots. We Are Hiring Taking away both pro-PAP and anti-PAP voters, there is actually a silent 30% of floating voters who could swing either way — and their might is best shown in these ‘freak elections’. Most strikingly, the very black swan which could “give the PAP nightmares” has appeared: Lee Hsien Yang. Through deeply analysed articles, we uncover and explain the complex and multifaceted issues facing our societies. Cloud hosting by Vodien. To Singh, there is no doubt that Singaporeans will vote for the PAP this coming election. Check out We, The Citizens’ spreadsheet compilation of party manifestos for this election. Otherwise better known as rainbowjellies, this intern is also Kopi's resident cat lady. Margin of victory in 2015:  32.82 per cent, Margin of victory in 2011:  0.72 per cent. His final thoughts for citizens: to watch how the 4G leaders perform over the next 5 years as the remaining 3G leaders such as Lee Hsien Loong, Khaw Boon Wan and Charles Chong are poised to or have already stepped down. This means that WP's East Coast GRC team has always been able to give the PAP a good electoral fight there. Singaporean voters will run back to papa.”. This Doodle's Reach. If you like what you read, follow us on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter and Telegram to get the latest updates. A win in the tough Covid-19 election is still a win for PAP. Singaporeans go to the polls July 10. Lee Kuan Yew himself had forewarned this as one of the Hard Truths to Keep Singapore Going: “There will come a time when eventually the public will say, look, let’s try the other side, either because the PAP has declined in quality or the opposition has put up a team which is equal to the PAP and they say, let’s try the other side.”. Furthermore, the full-bodied credentials of these new candidates compared to previous candidates the opposition fielded in the past could be a signal that the PAP has lost its monopoly in attracting the best potential political talents. There was also no talk about AHTC or anything related to Aljunied MPs' management of town council or municipal issues during the whole campaign. A landslide is also what the PAP has won in Friday's election and it needs some explaining. Also, Singapore Democratic Party leader Chee Soon Juan is hoping to win the Bukit Batok single constituency this time after losing out to PAP’s Murali Pillai in a 2016 by-election. More importantly, the unpredictable and protracted nature of this pandemic has proved to be an effective litmus test to measure the efficacy and resilience of governments all over the world. There is also the tricky situation of placing husband and wife Tan and He in the same team. PAP won in 2006, with current Chairman Sylvia Lim entering Parliament as an NCMP. However, it may have created its own demons in the process. The governing People's Action Party (PAP) will seek to secure their 15th consecutive term in office since 1959. The U.S. dollar-Singapore dollar exchange rate is forecast at 1.3400 for end-2020, down from 1.3700 projected previously. Singapore General Election 2020: Singaporeans will go to the polls on July 10. The big question is the Raeesah Khan effect. PAP’s idealogy may not suit the people anymore. What is That Noisy Bird That Goes ‘Ku-oo’ Every Morning? “Indeed, the PAP has done a good job at handling the Covid-19 crisis relative to other countries. Mark Kelly, Arizona Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, speaks at an election night event Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020 in Tucson, Ariz. Congress Arizona Democrat Mark Kelly sworn in as newest senator He nevertheless welcomes the entrance of the Lee younger brother into politics as he notes that it is good for the democracy and political vibrancy of Singapore. But this election result is surely about more than that. Although it has been at its lowest in almost two decades, research on past pandemics may suggest that the progress made could be undone since the top 10% are relatively unaffected and may have even profited in contrast to the lower and middle-income classes. Copyright © 2020 Mothership. All these can and will directly affect the amount of political support they get in the next elections, as taxpayers look towards their government to do what they pay them to do: protect the public. Check out all the latest updates on the General Election, Election campaigns and polling On the WP's end, He Tingru is the senior member of the team, having contested in Marine Parade GRC in 2015. And what if the PAP fails to uphold their economic performance? Sengkang GRC is made up of the former SMCs of Sengkang West and Punggol East, as well as the Sengkang Central ward of Pasir-Ris Punggol GRC. Could DPM Heng's move to East Coast GRC change WP's long-term strategy, as a Straits Times senior political correspondent astutely observed. It will be a referendum on the 4G leaders and not the 3G leaders… the PAP will have to prove themselves.”. What Happens If Singapore Runs Out of Food? 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